Who Could Win the 2025-26 NBA MVP?

By ankita bose Updated: Nov 25, 2025, 17:31 IST

As the 2025–26 NBA season unfolds, a handful of superstars stand out as top contenders for the Most Valuable Player award. Based on early betting markets and expert predictions, names like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Victor Wembanyama are often mentioned. Betting platforms, including https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/nba-player-props, reflect how serious the markets are about these players’ MVP chances, with odds shifting as the season develops.

The Front-Runners: Players & Key Achievements

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Shai is the defending NBA MVP after a standout 2024–25 season. He averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5 rebounds, while shooting over 51 percent from the field. He played a crucial role in leading the Thunder to one of the best records in the league. As a young, two-way guard, SGA combines elite scoring with strong defensive instincts.

Why he’s a contender in 2025–26:

  • He has already won the MVP once, and many expect him to repeat given his continued development.
  • He remains central to OKC’s offense and is seen as the heartbeat of the team’s title hopes.

Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets)

Jokić is a three-time MVP and remains one of the most efficient big men in NBA history. According to his Wikipedia profile, early in the 2025–26 season, he posted four straight triple-doubles to open the year.  He also had a monster game where he scored 55 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, and dished 6 assists on extremely efficient shooting.

Why he’s a contender:

  • Voters appreciate his all-around game: scoring, playmaking, and rebounding.
  • Expert predictions (such as ESPN’s) still rate him very highly.
  • He’s one of the league’s most consistent impacts, and a strong Denver team increases his MVP appeal.

Luka Dončić (Los Angeles Lakers)

Luka is always in MVP conversations, and his move to the Lakers for the 2025–26 season only boosts his profile. According to betting guides, his odds are strong as he settles into a key leadership role with Laker Gold. He is known for his triple-double ability and scoring versatility.

Why he’s a contender:

  • If he can average near a triple-double while leading a major-market franchise, he could sway MVP voters.
  • His playmaking and scoring mix remains elite and makes him a threat in any race.
  • He has a flair for big moments and could thrive as the face of the Lakers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)

Giannis remains a perennial MVP candidate. He has won multiple MVPs in his career, and his physical dominance and two-way impact make him a constant threat. According to NBC Sports’ preview, his 2025–26 case is strong, especially with the Bucks relying heavily on him.

Why he’s a contender:

  • He averaged around 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in a past season, showing his all-around impact.
  • His defensive presence and ability to influence both ends of the court remain elite.
  • If Milwaukee improves or leans into his MVP-caliber production, he could regain serious vote share.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)

Wembanyama represents the new generation of MVP contenders. While still young, he has rapidly grown into one of the most skilled centre-forwards in the league. In some expert projections, he is already mentioned among the top MVP candidates.

Why he’s a contender:

  • His combination of shot-blocking, scoring, and playmaking is rare for a player his age.
  • If the Spurs make strides and he continues to develop, his upside is enormous.
  • Voters may reward a generational talent if he leads his team to unexpected success.

 

Factors Influencing the MVP Race

Several key factors could determine who wins MVP in 2025–26:

  1. Team Success: MVP voters typically favor players on winning teams. If OKC, Denver, or San Antonio emerge as top teams, their stars gain an edge.
  2. Individual Efficiency: Players who deliver high-volume production while remaining efficient (good shooting percentages, low turnovers) tend to curry favor.
  3. Consistency: The regular season matters. Voters will reward players who sustain elite play, not just flashy moments.
  4. Storyline and Narrative: Defending MVPs like SGA or repeat champions like Jokić benefit from narrative, while young stars like Wembanyama could be propelled by a “next-gen” story.

 

The 2025–26 NBA MVP race promises to be one of the most compelling in recent memory. Returning talent like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić anchor the field, while established superstars such as Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo remain serious threats. At the same time, the ascent of Victor Wembanyama adds a fresh, high-upside dimension to the conversation.

Each contender brings something unique: clutch scoring, playmaking, versatility, or generational upside. Their performances this season, combined with team success and narrative strength, will shape who takes home the MVP honor. As the season progresses, fans and analysts will be watching closely to see which of these elite players makes a compelling case for the award.